Komentar dr. France Križanič: O razprodaji Slovenije

Odločitev države za prodajo svojega deleža v danem podjetjuje stvar mikroekonomske presoje in ne vodenja ekonomske politike. Če je podjetje pomembno za delovanje narodnega gospodarstva, ima njegova prodaja lahko tudi večje narodnogospodarske posledice. Za podjetja, ki so naravni monopoli (na primer Telekom in Aerodrom Ljubljana) je prodaja tvegana, saj prepušča monopolni prihodek privatnikom in najverjetneje njegov odliv v tujino. Nekateri gospodarski subjekti (kot sta na primer NKBM ali paMercator) s svojimi storitvami omogočajo delovanje dobršnega dela našega gospodarstva. Delujejo torej kot t.i. »mrežna podjetja«. Za podjetja kot so Elan, Fotona, Helios in Unior velja, da so razvojno intenzivna. Prevzemnik jih bo v procesu prilagajanja svojemu načinu poslovanja ustrezno zmanjšal in prilagodil svojim interesom (pri Elanu lahko ta proces opazujemo ob opustitvi programa razvoja in proizvodnje skakalnih smuči). Kupec podjetja pridobi trg in odpravi konkurenco, slovensko narodno gospodarstvo pa izgubi delovna mesta srednjega sloja: upravljavce, razvijalce, tržnike, tehnologe in vsa ostala delovna mesta vezana na uspešno delujoča jedra podjetij.

Prodaja podjetij, ki nimajo narave monopolov, niso zelo razvojno intenzivna in ne oskrbujejo ali odkupujejo blaga in storitev od večjega dela slovenskega gospodarstva, na prvi pogled ne predstavlja večjega makroekonomskega problema. Takšni primeri, vključeni v različne državne načrte odprodaje, so: Aero, Cinkarna Celje, Paloma, Terme Olimia. Podjetja, kot so Žito, Ljubljanske Mlekarne, Pivovarna Union in Laško smo že odprodali. Vprašanje je kaj bo od teh gospodarskih subjektov ostalo po njihovem prevzemu? Iz dosedanjih centrov razvoja na nekem sicer omejenem področju bodo postala hčerinske družbe za proizvodnjo in prodajo. Lastnik jih bo uporabljal dokler se stroški (zlasti plače) ne povišajo do take mere, da se mu bo izplačalo proizvodnjo preseliti tja kjer so ti stroški (plače) nižji. V jeziku teorije mednarodnih ekonomskih odnosov bi rekli, da smo podjetja proizvodnega ciklusa (ta ki z angažmajem znanja kreirajo raznolikost ponudbe na trgu) spremenili v t.i. »footloose« podjetja (ta, ki se selijo v območja z najnižjimi stroški).

Seveda pa so v Sloveniji podjetja, ki bi jim zelo koristil kredibilen strateški partner. Vendar jih je treba temu partnerju tudi prodati. Takšno podjetje je bilo na primer Adria Airways. Tako kot je bila prodana, predstavlja »laboratorijski primer« na katerem bomo lahko opazovali, kako bo novi lastnikspreminjal poslanstvo tega podjetja ne glede na potrebemobilnosti slovenskega prebivalstva.

Vprašajmo se še, kakšne bodo končne posledice, če bo začet proces razprodaje podjetij s sedežem in težiščem svojih razvojnih funkcij v Sloveniji stekel do konca (Mercator ob prevzemu ni bil državno pač pa privatno podjetje, proces prodaje podjetij po letu 2012 je sprožila država, a je bil precej širši od prodaje državnih deležev). Ob nadaljevanju nepremišljene razprodaje in transformacije samostojnih podjetij v podružnice bo Slovenija namreč dosegla raven, ko pri nas ne bo več možno uvajati gospodarskega razvoja, akumulacija bo odtekala, podjetja infrastrukturne narave pa bodo skrčila svojo ponudbo. Zopet bomo polkolonija in takokot na koncu 19. stoletja se bomo soočili z eksodusom (med 1880 in 1910 se je, po podatkih Enciklopedije Slovenije, odselila približno tretjina našega prebivalstva). Za razliko od takratnih razmer si bodo tokrat morali ljudje, ki bodo ostali,zelo verjetno za svoj obstoj pomagati z razbojništvom. Gre zaobliko preživetja obstrancev, izključenih ali ubogih (teoretično jo je v knjigi »Razbojniki« obdelal angleški zgodovinar Eric Hobsbawm). V sodobnem svetu razbojniške tolpe oziroma združbe imenujemo »gangs«.

Naj končam optimistično. Ko je Nobelov nagrajenec Simon Kuznets (za bralce Svobodne besede: od 1942 do 1944 je vodil »Bureau of Planning and Statistics, War Production Board«, državni organ, ki je v ZDA organiziral proizvodnjo za vojaške potrebe) empirično analiziral kaj vpliva na moderno gospodarsko rast, je odkril štiri t.i. nacionalne faktorje (velikost, lega, naravne danosti ter zgodovinska dediščina narodnega gospodarstva), zaradi katerih se ta med državami razlikuje. Po drugi strani pa je ugotovil, da obstajajo tudi trije t.i. transnacionalni (vsem skupni) faktorji: (1) sistem produkcije, ki temelji na tehnološkem potencialu danem z dosežki znanosti, (2) želja po višjem življenjskem standardu ter (3) nacionalna država. Proces razprodaje Slovenije (njenih ključnih podjetij) je po 2012 postal možen zaradi nedelovanja (neustreznega delovanja) Kuznetsovega tretjega transnacionalnega faktorja: organizirane nacionalne države. Začetek sodne obravnave odgovornih za destabilizacijo Slovenije (namenjeno ustvarjanju pogojev za razprodajo Slovenije) pomeni, da tak scenarij ni neizogiben. Morda pa vendarle lahko ostanemo optimisti.

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