Komentar Tanje Fajon: Trumpova trgovinska vojna – nevarna igra ničelne vsote

Napoved ameriškega predsednika Donalda Trumpa o višjih carinah na uvoz jekla in aluminija v ZDA je razburila svet in povzročila val kritik in ogorčenja. Kot da mu sploh ni mar za pravila mednarodne trgovine je v zadnjih nekaj dneh napovedal še zvišanje carin na uvoz iz Kitajske in v svojem populističnem slogu zagrozil nemški avtomobilski industriji: »Obdavčili bomo Mercedes Benz, obdavčili bomo BMW!«. S Trumpovimi protekcionističnimi ukrepi se ne strinja niti njegov gospodarski svetovalec, ki je zaradi tega odstopil, v začetku tedna pa je sam odstavil državnega sekretarja Rexa Tillersona, ki ravno tako nasprotuje višjim carinam. »Bližamo se kabinetu, ki si ga želim«, je ob tem dejal.

Ali se bližamo tudi novi svetovni ureditvi, ki si jo želijo Trumpove ZDA? Medtem ko ameriški predsednik bahato in vztrajno krši pravila težko izpogajanega multilateralnega okvirja se izrisujejo pravila nove igre. Ta so jasna, a sila nepravična in nekonstruktivna: interes ZDA je glavno merilo in za njegovo uresničitev je dovoljeno vse. Trumpove ZDA bi globalizacijske tokove preusmerile po svoje, dvignile bi carine mimo dogovorov znotraj Svetovne trgovinske organizacije in prekinile pogajanja o mednarodnih trgovinskih in okoljskih sporazumih.

Čeprav je še prezgodaj ugotavljati, kaj točno bi pomenile carine ZDA in podajati natančno oceno gospodarske škode, vemo, da protekcionistični ukrepi, ki so sprožilec trgovinskih vojn, niso nikoli prinesli nič dobrega. Zgodovina je pokazala, da gre za nevarno igro ničelne vsote, v kateri ni zmagovalcev. Zdi se, da Trump pozablja na lekcijo o razvoju po drugi svetovni vojni, ki nas je izučila, da zmanjšanje trgovinskih ovir prinaša koristi vsem.

Ne ozira se na stroko, ki trdi, da je čas za skupno znižanje carin po vsem svetu in postopno uskladitev navzdol. Danes, ko je popolnoma jasno, da trenutna carinska pravila Svetovne trgovinske organizacije odražajo ‘staro ureditev sveta’ in da potrebujemo dogovore o carinah, ki bodo odraz ‘nove ureditve sveta’ je Trumpova poteza klofuta gospodarski logiki in posmehovanje multilateralni ureditvi.

Tudi v Evropskem parlamentu smo ostro obsodili Trumpovo odločitev glede zvišanja carin. Evropsko komisijo in države članice smo pozvali k enotnosti in odločnosti v prihodnjih pogajanjih z ZDA. Dvig carinskih dajatev je v nasprotju s sporazumi v okviru Svetovne trgovinske organizacije, kjer se je 164 držav zavezalo, da bodo spoštovale pravila mednarodne trgovine. Evropska unija lahko zaradi dviga carin ZDA toži pred Svetovno trgovinsko organizacijo in taki postopki EU niso tuji: do sedaj je sodelovala v 181 postopkih za reševanje sporov, od tega v 97 kot tožnik.

Vendar verjamem, da ne smemo dovoliti, da nas Trumpove provokacije pripeljejo do tega, da bi povlekli podobne poteze. Naš odgovor mora biti jasen in odločen, takšen, ki bo v prvi vrsti zaščitil delavce in podjetja v Evropi in bo v skladu z mednarodnim pravom. Upreti se moramo (novi) svetovni ureditvi po meri ZDA, kjer namesto prava vlada moč; kjer imajo sebični nacionalni interesi primat nad skupnimi dogovori, na katerih temelji svetovna ureditev; kjer se moč kaže z nepremišljenimi ukrepi, ki se kratkoročno zdijo kot rešitev, dolgoročno pa škodijo praktično vsem.

V negotovih časih, v časih, ko nespametne poteze enega človeka ogrožajo svetovno ureditev, ki smo jo potrpežljivo in vztrajno gradili čez leta, mora Evropska Unija ostati zvesta temeljnim načelom: vodenje dialoga in gradnja zavezništev sta naše močno orožje, okrepitev sodelovanja s podobno mislečimi partnerji pa naše osnovno vodilo. Še naprej se bomo zavzemali za multilateralno ureditev, ki temelji na jasnih pravilih in sodelovanju, ko gre za mednarodno trgovino ali boj proti klimatskim spremembam. Ne bomo nasedli Trumpovi trgovinski vojni, ki bo na dolgi rok najbolj bolela ravno Američane.

Tanja Fajon, predsednica Sveta SD za zunanje zadeve in evropska poslanka S&D

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